A time of extreme danger

The war on European soil

The tragic war in Ukraine has claimed many victims. Not least of these is that increasingly rare commodity called the truth.

There are two versions of it that are propagated. One is the Western view which says that Russia’s attack on Ukraine is unprovoked, that Putin is a tyrant and an expansionist and that once he is done with Ukraine, he will target other EU countries.

Russia’s view is that it has no territorial ambitions and that it was provoked into the war because of NATO pushing, or rather attempting to push, its boundaries right up to the Russian border. Russia says this is a threat to its existence and that it had urged the West for years not to extend NATO and that if it did there would be a response.

Each side is expert in pushing its version of the truth. And, as in all wars, there is obfuscation, deceit and duplicity designed to mold public opinion to their respective positions.

So those of us who believe we are objective, unbiased thinkers committed to the truth have a challenge on our hands: How to look through this smoke screen of propaganda to perceive what lies at the other end?

Be that as it may, how we got here and who is at fault is now somewhat of a moot issue. We are here. There is a war on European soil. And one of the combatants is a nuclear power. This is a time of extreme danger. A discussion about who started this and who is at fault is not useful now. Rather the focus has to be on how we end it.

And here it seems to me that European leaders are not being realistic when they insist that the only way to end this is for Russia to be defeated on the battlefield. In my view this is not going to happen. Certainly, Russia miscalculated early in the invasion when it thought it could mount a quick operation. It has suffered setbacks but has learned from these mistakes and has now upped its game.

Despite the imposition of what were viewed as “crippling” sanctions, Russia’s economy remains robust and even to prosper. The supply of munitions seems unimpeded. There is no evidence of any internal opposition to the war. And the ultimate backstop to the possibility of Russia losing on the battlefield is underpinned by nuclear weapons. Russia has these. Ukraine does not. If Russia were to use them there is no risk of retaliation. At least not from Ukraine.

And make no mistake Russia will use them if it feels its existence is threatened. This position is enshrined in the country’s official nuclear use doctrine. Defeat in Ukraine and NATO marching up to Russia's border will automatically trigger this doctrine. The horror of a nuclear war in Europe, if indeed it can be limited to Europe, is too great even contemplate.

What can be said for sure is that this war needs to end. Now. There is simply too much at stake to allow it to continue. So, both sides need to urgently start on a diplomatic process. Not easy, of course, when each side blames the other for not wanting to engage. And their escalatory rhetoric shows no sign of abating.

This is a time when both sides need leaders like Kennedy and Khrushchev who both understood that letting the Cuban missile crisis get out of hand would end in Armageddon. They worked tirelessly behind the scenes to find a compromise. And in the end, one was reached. The USSR pulled its missiles out of Cuba and the US pulled its assets out of Turkey. The world was saved.

Today, those who lead the world are acting like children in a playground brawl. What is happening in Ukraine is not children at play. It is one of the most dangerous moments in modern human history. People around the world are going about their daily lives unaware that these lives have been put in unprecedented jeopardy by a coterie of politicians blinded by power, ambition and suicidal hubris. They need to grow up.